Wealth Management Blog | WrapManager (17)

How “Familiarity Bias” May Impact Your Investment Decision-Making

Posted by Seton McAndrews | CFP®, Vice President Investments

July 18, 2017

How “Familiarity Bias” May Impact Your Investment Decision-Making

It’s no secret that investors have a tendency to "get in their own way” when it comes to making investment decisions. As we have written before, you may not be your own best financial planner. The idea that investors often make emotional or ill-informed decisions is not an attribute that is just widely-known and accepted—there is actually an entire field of research devoted to it.

This field of research is known as Behavioral Economics or Behavioral Finance, and people in the field study “inherent biases that plague individual investors.” These biases are often ones that are difficult for individual investors to come to terms with and overcome. Robert Stammers, the Director of Education for the CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) Institute, frames the role of investor behavior on decision-making into three behavioral biases: overconfidence, familiarity, and anchoring.¹ We will focus on the familiarity bias here.

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Familiarity Bias Investing 101

Anticipating Inverse ETF Returns: Doug’s Quiz Corner

July 18, 2017

Quizmaster, Doug Hutchinson, presents his quiz for the month. Here, Doug teaches a lesson on antcipating inverse ETF returns. Consider this Scenario: Your friend Gary is feeling bearish on the stock market so he purchased $10,000 of an inverse ETF. The inverse ETF he purchased aims to return the opposite of the daily return of the S&P 500 (for example, if the S&P 500 goes down 1% on a given day, the inverse ETF should go up 1% on that day). There are several reasons why an inverse ETF may not be exactly the inverse of the index on a given day (expense ratio of the ETF, tracking error, trading costs, etc.) but for the purposes of this example, assume that Gary’s inverse ETF returns exactly the inverse of the daily returns of the S&P 500. [+] Read More

12 Ways to Define the Investment Goals that Matter to You

July 13, 2017

Being a prudent saver and a savvy investor can help you accumulate the assets you need for retirement. In some cases, that can mean a formula as simple as saving 20% of all your lifetime earnings and hiring a trusted adviser to build you a diversified investment portfolio. But for those who want to take the planning process a step further, it can be beneficial to define the investment goals that matter to you. This exercise can provide you clarity to answer not the question of how to save and where to save, but why to save. [+] Read More

Federated Investors Hopeful About Stocks’ Summer Doldrums

July 13, 2017

While extremely low headline volatility of late may be putting some investors to sleep, beneath the surface, there has been a healthy and ongoing rotation among market sectors that should continue into the fall, pulling the S&P 500 ever higher toward our near-term 2,500 and long-term 3,000 targets. The reasons are three-fold: the economic backdrop is still solid; credit and liquidity conditions remain good; and politics and the Fed appear set to work together and revive the “Trump trade” in coming months. So stay long stocks. Add to industrials, financials and health care. And don’t abandon tech yet—there’s more to come in the next 12 months. Continue reading for additional insights: [+] Read More

Plan Now for Education Later: 529 College Savings Plans

June 29, 2017

With the cost of education continuing to rise, and the requirements for minimum workforce entry showing no likelihood of decreasing the importance of a post-secondary education, it’s more important than ever that college costs are considered and incorporated into your budget as early as possible. For all the readers who have children, grandchildren, nieces and nephews who are a constant source of excitement and joy, making sure these children get a world-class education is of paramount importance. But paying for college is a completely different ballgame. [+] Read More

BlackRock Examines Momentum Trading in 2017

June 29, 2017

We like momentum in today’s economic environment, even if its performance could be prone to short-lived reversals. The momentum style factor — stocks that are trending higher in price — has been on a tear in 2017. Sustained above-trend economic growth and solid earnings prospects could help extend the gains, but it may be a bumpy ride. Momentum has historically outrun the broader market, but with periodic sharp drops. The biggest dips in its relative performance have coincided with recessions and financial crises. Our research shows momentum tends to perform best during steady economic expansions — and we see this cycle having ample room to run. Read the three key points of BlackRock's weekly commentary below, or view the entire three-page weekly investment commentary now. [+] Read More

What is Probate? Why & How to Avoid It

June 22, 2017

Back in mid-May, I wrote an estate planning article about the late artist and global music phenomenon, Prince. The objective of the piece, amongst other things, was to bring to light the problems, expenses, and hardships that can result when a high net worth individual does not adequately prepare an estate plan. In Prince’s case, he did not even have a last will. What followed in Prince’s case was nothing short of troubling. More than 45 people came forward to the court claiming to be related to Prince as a spouse, child, sibling, or some other relative. Prince’s estate then spent over a year in probate court, and at the end of the day it has been reported that his $200 million estate is expected to be cut in half by federal and estate taxes. Can you imagine paying $100 million in taxes? It’s unfathomable! In all likelihood, this outcome could have largely been avoided with some sound financial and legal advice during Prince’s lifetime. [+] Read More

Nuveen Decodes Mixed Economic Signals

June 22, 2017

Economic Data and Confidence Levels Offer Mixed Signals In recent months, we have seen increased softness in so-called “hard” economic data, including retail sales, automotive production and employment. At the same time, “soft” data such as business confidence measures point to an expectation of economic acceleration. In our experience, these disconnects typically result in a move in the soft data, suggesting confidence measures could be due for a setback. Should this happen, it could provide a headwind for equity prices. Key Points: Economic data has trailed off in recent weeks, but we see reasons to expect a renewed acceleration. In the near-term, confidence levels could diminish, providing a headwind for stocks. Nevertheless, we believe it makes sense to maintain a pro-growth investment stance. Read an excerpt of the complete commentary below, or download the entire investment commentary as a PDF . [+] Read More

Which is Less Volatile, Stocks or Bonds? Doug's Quiz Corner

June 20, 2017

Quizmaster, Doug Hutchinson, presents his quiz for the month. Here, Doug explores portfolio volatility. Consider this Scenario: Your friend Margaret has recently inherited some money and is considering how to invest it. Her current portfolio is invested exclusively in long term US Government bonds. She is leaning toward investing the inheritance in more long-term US Government bonds, but her friend Tiffany has suggested that Margaret invest this inheritance in a diversified portfolio of stocks instead of buying more bonds. The inheritance will make up 10% of her total portfolio. Margaret isn’t so sure and she tells Tiffany, “I’m not comfortable with volatility in my portfolio. I want to have as little volatility as possible. So I’m leaning toward just adding more long-term US Government bonds since bonds typically have less volatility than stocks.” If her goal is to have as little volatility as possible in her portfolio – which investment option for the addition, is most likely to achieve Margaret’s goal: 1) more long-term US Government bonds of the same duration as her existing holidngs or 2) a diversified portfolio of stocks? [+] Read More

JP Morgan Evaluates Implications of an Interest Rate Hike

June 15, 2017

After a brutal recession and a painfully slow recovery, the U.S. economy no longer needs emergency measures of support from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Policymakers began the process of normalizing monetary policy at the end of 2015, and although the Fed is raising rates because the economy is healthier, the prospect of higher interest rates has created consternation and angst among some investors. While the Fed’s own projections are for a slow and gradual rate hike cycle, futures pricing suggests that the market thinks interetst rate hikes may be a bit slower. Although the gap between the Fed’s projections and the market’s view has narrowed, there is still room for surprises and volatility. The key thing to watch will be how market expectations adjust to the Fed’s new forecasts, as a Fed that hikes more quickly than the market expects could lead to upward pressure on the U.S. dollar and a de facto tightening for the U.S. economy. Read the entire commentary here. [+] Read More