Lazard believes there are conflicting signals regarding the current economic conditions, which are affecting certain industry sectors differently. Technology and industrials appear to be resilient, while consumer goods and materials are showing weak trends. Energy, health care, and financials are focused on what transpires in Washington, and Lazard thinks that this trend towards government intervention will play a more prominent role in the years to come compared to any time in the last two decades. Lazard believes attractive opportunities for investors exist in finding those companies with healthy balance sheets, strong organic cash flow, and operational flexibility, as these companies should deliver better results over time. Download Full Commmentary Here
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Money manager Macquarie Allegiance's February newsletter details why they think Treasury yields will continue to increase, especially in the 10 year Treasury. "Our analysis shows that the improving trend of the economy has been pressuring Treasury yields higher. The current macro momentum suggests we are heading for the third test of 4.0% on the 10Y yield in this cycle. However, inflation pressures in the US remain low despite the added pressure coming from surging commodity prices. We conclude that the persistence of a large negative output gap is helping to contain inflation pressures."