--- title: JP Morgan - Q1 2015 Earnings Recap description: JP Morgan's First Quarter Market Bulletin for 2015 provides a recap of the earnings season. image: http://www.wrapmanager.com/hubfs/MM_Logo_Images/JP_Morgan_Asset_Mgmt.jpg --- [![Assembly Wealth](https://www.letsassemble.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Assembly/logos/Assembly-Wealth-Logo-Orange-500px.png?width=300&height=70&name=Assembly-Wealth-Logo-Orange-500px.png "Assembly Wealth")](https://www.letsassemble.com/) The Money Manager People TM [800-541-7774](tel:+18005417774) [![RESEARCH MONEY MANAGERS](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/10700/7ecbcb66-3fbb-41e3-b219-c24fb3c769c5.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/10700/7ecbcb66-3fbb-41e3-b219-c24fb3c769c5) [![Client Center](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/10700/8691dcb4-caa3-42c2-a810-77b59f461fd2.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/10700/8691dcb4-caa3-42c2-a810-77b59f461fd2) [Home](https://www.letsassemble.com/) WrapManager's Wealth Management Blog When life changes, we can help you thoughtfully respond. [< Back to read another post](https://www.letsassemble.com/wealth-management-blog) # JP Morgan - Q1 2015 Earnings Recap Posted by [ WrapManager's Investment Policy Committee](https://www.letsassemble.com/wealth-management-blog/author/wrapmanagers-investment-policy-committee) June 2, 2015 - [Tweet](https://twitter.com/share) [![JP_Morgan_Asset_Management](http://www.wrapmanager.com/hubfs/MM_Logo_Images/JP_Morgan_Asset_Mgmt.jpg "JP_Morgan_Asset_Management")](http://www.wrapmanager.com/wealth-management-blog/brookmont-reducing-exposure-to-mid-cap-stocks)JP Morgan's First Quarter Market Bulletin for 2015 provides a recap of the earnings season.  "In Brief • We estimate that first quarter 2015 earnings-per-share (EPS) declined by 5.0% on a year-over-year (y/y) basis. Similar to the prior quarter, this was primarily due to lower oil prices and the stronger U.S. dollar (USD). • Excluding the energy sector, S&P 500 EPS grew by 9.1%, in-line with historical trends. We also estimate that the stronger U.S. dollar resulted in an average EPS decline of 5% for the most multinational non-energy companies.• We continue to favor U.S. equities, despite slightly higher valuation levels. The base case for the S&P 500 total return in 2015 is in the single digit range, which we believe is still attractive for most portfolios in this market environment. • In addition, macroeconomic shocks (lower oil prices, stronger dollar) have led to widening dispersion across and within sectors, potentially benefiting active managers who can take advantage of attractive opportunities. Summary The first quarter of 2015 continued the marked slowdown in EPS growth that began at the end of last year. These declines are not due to a general slowdown in the U.S. economy. Rather, they are a result of two broad macroeconomic headwinds: lower oil prices and the strengthening USD. Stock market valuations, such as the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, remain modestly elevated for this reason. To the extent that recent weakness is driven by these macroeconomic  effects, we expect the drag on earnings to subside by the end of the  year. In fact, bottom-up estimates imply that earnings will stabilizeby  the third quarter and rebound by the fourth. Analysts are already  looking through these short-term factors toward future earnings growth. As a result, we continue to recommend an overweight to U.S. equities. On  one hand, stronger earnings data is needed to justify current valuation  levels. On the other hand, P/E multiples are far from stretched and  short term earnings hiccups have not historically predicted bear markets. Instead, investors should lower their return expectations  for the S&P 500. We believe a solid single-digit return is the base  case for 2015, which should still be attractive for most portfolios.  This also means that finding opportunities within the market is more important than ever. EARNINGS RECAP With 92% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 having reported  earnings, we estimate that first quarter EPS shrank by 5% on a y/y  basis to $25.94. This is an extremely weak earnings season: Not only will this be the first time since 2012 that EPS declined in two consecutive quarters, but the earnings season one year ago was weak to begin with."...Download below to read the Full Report. To learn more about JP Morgan and other money managers, give us a call at 1-800-541-7774 or [contact us here](http://www.wrapmanager.com/contact) and one of our Wealth Manager can help answer your questions. ![pdficon](http://www.wrapmanager.com/hs-fs/hub/10700/file-2346359955-gif/blog-files/pdficon.gif) [Download JP Morgan's Earnings Recap Here](http://www.wrapmanager.com/hubfs/Financial_Article_PDFs/May_2015/JPMorgan-Earnings-Recap_1Q15.pdf) ![icon_report](http://www.wrapmanager.com/hs-fs/hub/10700/file-2346359965-gif/blog-files/icon_report.gif) [Get Free Research Reports From JP Morgan](https://www.letsassemble.com/money-manager-research/jp_morgan) [Money Manager Research](https://www.letsassemble.com/wealth-management-blog/topic/money-manager-research) [JPMorgan Asset Management](https://www.letsassemble.com/wealth-management-blog/topic/jpmorgan-asset-management) [JP Morgan](https://www.letsassemble.com/wealth-management-blog/topic/jp-morgan) [![Top-equity-money-manager-picks](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/10700/23094163-953c-4a42-b497-b5956166aaab.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/10700/23094163-953c-4a42-b497-b5956166aaab) ### Subscribe to Updates [Subscribe to RSS Feed](https://www.letsassemble.com/wealth-management-blog/rss.xml) [![New Call-to-action](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/10700/ffe2a394-957b-481b-9f80-4ef176bd6aaf.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/10700/ffe2a394-957b-481b-9f80-4ef176bd6aaf) ### Most Recently Published ### Blog Authors [![Gabriel Burczyk](http://www.wrapmanager.com/hs-fs/hub/10700/file-2347381761-jpg/Athors_Avatars/Gabe-avatar.jpg "Gabriel Burczyk")](http://www.wrapmanager.com/wealth-management-blog/author/gabriel-burczyk) [**Gabriel Burczyk,**](http://www.wrapmanager.com/wealth-management-blog/author/gabriel-burczyk) [Founder & CEO](http://www.wrapmanager.com/wealth-management-blog/author/gabriel-burczyk) [![Valerie De Vol](http://www.wrapmanager.com/hs-fs/hub/10700/file-2457588837-jpg/Athors_Avatars/Valerie-De-Vol-avatar.jpg "Valerie De Vol")](http://www.wrapmanager.com/wealth-management-blog/author/valerie-de-vol) [**Valerie De Vol, **IACCP® Chief Operating Officer](http://www.wrapmanager.com/wealth-management-blog/author/valerie-de-vol) [![Seton-avatar.jpg](http://www.wrapmanager.com/hs-fs/hub/10700/file-2344519198-jpg/Athors_Avatars/Seton-avatar.jpg "Seton-avatar.jpg")](http://www.wrapmanager.com/wealth-management-blog/author/seton-mcandrews) [**Seton McAndrews, **CFP® ](http://www.wrapmanager.com/wealth-management-blog/author/seton-mcandrews)[Vice President - Investments](http://www.wrapmanager.com/wealth-management-blog/author/seton-mcandrews) [![Doug Hutchinson](http://www.wrapmanager.com/hs-fs/hub/10700/file-2347381751-jpg/Athors_Avatars/Doug-avatar.jpg "Doug Hutchinson")](http://www.wrapmanager.com/wealth-management-blog/author/doug-hutchinson) **[Doug Hutchinson,](http://www.wrapmanager.com/wealth-management-blog/author/doug-hutchinson) **[CFA® ](http://www.wrapmanager.com/wealth-management-blog/author/doug-hutchinson)[Director of Research and Trading](http://www.wrapmanager.com/wealth-management-blog/author/doug-hutchinson) ![Katie - square.png](https://www.wrapmanager.com/hubfs/Katie%20-%20square.png "Katie - square.png") [**Katie O'Connor **Director of Client Services](https://www.wrapmanager.com/wealth-management-advisors/katie-oconnor) **Important Disclosure Concerning WrapManager Blogs** Blogs found at this site have been created or supported by WrapManager. 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